With the 2017 NFL season underway, the head coach firing countdown has officially begun. Chuck Pagano entered 2017 looking like a strong candidate to get bounced from Indianapolis, and per the latest NFL odds at Bovada, he now looks like the top favorite to get the axe.

The logic is there for anyone to see. Pagano’s defensive background hasn’t yielded an elite Colts defense, while Indy has seemingly regressed in each of the last two seasons. The Colts inexplicably handed their would-be lame duck coach a contract extension before the season, but if week one is any indication, that might not save him.

First Head Coach to Be Fired Odds

It does not look good for Pagano, who took a perennial winner under Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell and has slowly driven it into the ground. Pagano heads into week two as the top favorite to be handed a pink slip, as his Colts got off to a rough 0-1 start by getting trounced by the Rams, 47-9.

The hottest seat in the NFL belongs to Detroit Lions Head Coach Matt Patricia. He is the favourite to get fired first this season, paying +300 at Sports Interaction. The second-year coach is the favorite at Bovada to be the first NFL coach fired at +150. Dan Quinn of the Atlanta Falcons is next at +200. New York Jets’ Adam Gase is less than a 2/1 favorite to be the first NFL head coach fired.

NFL Specials Odds and Props Bovada. Gambling should be entertaining. Remember that you always risk losing the money you bet, so do not spend more than you can afford to lose.

Not having star quarterback Andrew Luck under center isn’t doing Pagano any favors, but at some point he may have to answer for his team constantly failing to deliver.

Pagano is far from the only big name head coach that is already on the hot seat, however. Just take a look at the latest head coaching firing odds, per Bovada:

• Chuck Pagano – Indianapolis Colts (-125)
• Marvin Lewis – Cincinnati Bengals (+500)
• John Fox – Chicago Bears (+1200)
• Todd Bowles – New York Jets (+1200)
• Ben McAdoo – New York Giants (+1200)
• Hue Jackson – Cleveland Browns (+1600)
• Jim Caldwell – Detroit Lions (+1600)
• Bill O’Brien – Houston Texans (+1600)
• Mike Mularkey – Tennessee Titans (+1800)
• Sean Payton – New Orleans Saints (+2800)
• Jay Gruden – Washington Redskins (+2800)
• Adam Gase – Miami Dolphins (+3300)
• Doug Pederson – Philadelphia Eagles (+3300)
• Ron Rivera – Carolina Panthers (+3300)
• Sean McDermott – Buffalo Bills (+3300)
• Doug Marrone – Jacksonville Jaguars (+4000)
• Jason Garrett – Dallas Cowboys (+4000)
• Bruce Arians – Arizona Cardinals (+4000)
• Dan Quinn – Atlanta Falcons (+5000)
• Mike Zimmer – Minnesota Vikings (+5000)
• Dirk Koetter – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6600)
• Kyle Shanahan – San Francisco 49ers (+6600)
• Anthony Lynn – Los Angeles Chargers (+7500)
• Mike Tomlin – Pittsburgh Steelers (+10000)
• Mike McCarthy – Green Bay Packers (+10000)
• Sean McVay – Los Angeles Rams (+10000)
• Jack Del Rio – Oakland Raiders (+10000)
• John Harbaugh – Baltimore Ravens (+10000)
• Vance Joseph – Denver Broncos (+10000)
• Andy Reid – Kansas City Chiefs (+10000)
• Pete Carroll – Seattle Seahawks (+10000)
• Bill Belichick – New England Patriots (+50000)

The first thing to consider if you’re making this bet is which coaches are pretty safe and which logically are in trouble. One easy way to differentiate the options is to consider what actually gets a coach fired.

Coaches with even moderate success and a good team around them are typically going to be safe. There are legends like Belichick, Carroll, Reid and Harbaugh that are untouchable. McCarthy and Tomlin are the next tier down and aren’t remotely at risk.

You could make a small case for coaches like Del Rio and Zimmer, but they’ve rebuilt franchises into playoff contenders – if not title threats.

Dan Quinn and Ron Rivera are probably off limits, too. Quinn got his Falcons to the Super Bowl last year and Riverboat Ron got Carolina to the same game two years ago.

Jason Garrett, Bruce Arians and Jay Gruden are also all probably safe. They’ve had some solid success and in their current position, I’m not sure much more can be asked of them.

I also think most of the first-year guys are safe. I don’t see much reason for anyone to toss money on Vance Joseph, Anthony Lynn, Sean McVay or Sean McDermott to get fired. They could get canned, in theory, but I doubt it. The only one I’d be on the fence about is Kyle Shanahan. The Niners have had a different coach in each of the last four seasons now and if he doesn’t make positive changes, rookie GM John Lynch could get rid of him before he makes him lose his job, too.

I don’t think Shanny has that short of a leash, but if you’re looking for a flier bet in this group, he’s an interesting one at +6600 at Bovada.

In Danger

Those are your untouchables, or at least close to it.

That leaves us with Dirk Koetter, Doug Marrone, Doug Pederson, Adam Gase, Sean Payton, Mike Mularkey, Bill O’Brien, Jim Caldwell, Hue Jackson, Ben McAdoo, Todd Bowles, John Fox, Marvin Lewis and of course, Chuck Pagano.

I’m sure we can quickly rule out some of these guys, too.

Koetter, Pederson, McAdoo and Gase are all in their second seasons. They seem to have built solid foundations and have had moderate success already. It would likely take massive crater jobs for any of them to get fired in 2017.

Next up are Hue Jackson, Mike Mularkey and Doug Marrone. Jackson probably should be given a long leash consider he took over a terrible Browns roster, but his team only went 1-15 in 2016. I think he’s fine as long as they’re competitive and show steady progress, but it’s possible they endure another trying season and that obviously wouldn’t look good for him.

Mularkey was a sheepish hire in the first place for the Titans, so he probably needs to make serious noise in 2017 to keep his job. He took over as the team’s interim coach in 2015 and finished 9-7 last year, but anything short of a playoff run puts him in danger.

Marrone is another candidate for quick release, depending on how things unfold for the Jags. Much like Mularkey, he took over as an interim solution last year and was handed full control ahead of the 2017 season. The Jags seem built to make a playoff run, so if he can’t help them do that, his head could easily be the first to roll.

If we’re looking for extra value, we should consider veteran coaches like Caldwell, Payton and O’Brien. These guys have had some success, but NFL franchises don’t like wasting away in purgatory. It’s tough to demand more out of Caldwell and O’Brien give the teams they’re leading, but anything less than a return to the playoffs probably won’t be met with a smile.

Payton is the wild card here at +2800, just because he’s been rumored to be on the hot seat for years now. It’s never easy to move away from an iconic coach who brought your franchise a Super Bowl and back to relevancy, but Payton hasn’t pushed the Saints into the playoff since 2013.

Who Gets Fired First?

I think we can locate some solid value with a few of the names we touched on. Payton, Mularkey and Marrone stand out the most in that regard and Shanny (+6600) is probably my favorite high-end flier bet.

Ultimately, the top NFL sportsbooks probably have this wager right. Pagano is the obvious leader for so many reasons, Marvin Lewis has been in Cincinnati for an astonishing 14 seasons without registering a single playoff win, while John Fox and Todd Bowles are at their team’s mercy in obvious rebuilding stages.

I think the big question is what the Bears and Jets hope to accomplish in 2017. If they merely want to compete and stock up on more draft picks, then why lead their current coaches on?

Unless these teams just cave early and don’t put up any kind of a fight, I have to think both organizations already know they’re not going to be very good and they still like the guys leading the way.

If that’s true, we’re looking at Lewis or Pagano being canned first. Lewis is off to an 0-1 start after a nasty 20-0 home loss last week and the Bengals missed the playoffs in 2016. He’s pieced together a really solid team and has helped the Bengals to 7 winning seasons, but further regression might finally end his reign.

Pagano is closer to getting fired, though. Lewis at least built up a solid Bengals defense and has a long history of making the playoffs. Pagano reached the playoffs in his first three years on the job, but his Indy defenses haven’t been good and he’s largely survived thanks to the play of Andrew Luck.

Throughout the process, Pagano has failed to surround Luck with winning talent or proper pass protection, while he’s actually thrown his quarterback under the bus before. With two straight 8-8 seasons behind him and a horrific start to 2017, Pagano seems to be very much on his last legs.

Vegas knows it, which is why we get almost no value with him at -150. We can consider fun flier bets on Lewis and Shanahan, but if we want the logical and safe bet, we’re trending towards Pagano being the right pick.

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The first week of the 2019 NFL season is in the bag. That can mean a lot of things. It could mean you had a winning weekend as a bettor. It could mean you suffered from some bad beats, too.

It also could mean some teams are well on their way to exceeding or beating expectations. And the sixteen teams on the other side could be one step closer to pushing the panic button.

This is still just one week we’re working with. There are 15 undefeated teams and 15 winless teams (and two teams that tied). Some will crumble, and others will rise up. And week 1 doesn’t always tell us the whole story.

But there’s enough evidence to roll with and start capitalizing on some NFL prop bets. One such wager could be which NFL head coach gets fired first.

Our own Michael Wynn touched on this when he looked at the latest NFL Coach of the Year odds. There are two sides to that impossible job — winning, and losing so much it gets you canned.

We’ll certainly be touching on the NFL Coach of the Year debate as the season goes on, but some atrocious week 1 outings have the league and its fan base on high alert. Needless to say, bettors want to know which NFL head coach will be the first to go.

You can take the first step in your betting process by noting the latest odds. Online sports betting sites usually have a good idea as to who has the hottest seat, and right now, that figures to be Redskins head coach Jay Gruden.

Here are the latest odds for which NFL coach will get fired first in 2019.

The odds for which NFL head coach will get fired first are always interesting. The funniest thing for me is the bottom portion of the list, which is just littered with untouchables.

Bill Belichick seriously has the safest job in the world. He’d have to defecate on Robert Kraft’s dinner plate to get a raised eyebrow.

The story is pretty similar for Sean McVay, Doug Pederson, Sean Payton, Jon Gruden, and Andy Reid.

First Nfl Coach Fired Odds Bovada Odds

Reid has turned the Chiefs into a title threat and got KC to the AFC title game last year. If Kansas City thinks there’s someone better out there, good luck. Same for the Saints and Eagles. Both Payton and Pederson are responsible for the franchise’s only respective Lombardi Trophies.

To say the team would have a full-blown mutiny on their hands if they canned those living legends would be putting it nicely.

Gruden signed a ten-year deal with the Raiders, and owner Mark Davis treats losing like his haircut. He just doesn’t care. Oakland is off to a 1-0 start, anyway. That’ll secure Gruden for at least another five seasons.

And McVay? Please. The guy has two playoff runs, two division titles, and a trip to the Super Bowl to his name. The Rams may never fire him.

There are other guys in situations where their teams either have a lot invested in them or they deserve time to prove they are or are not the answer at the head helm. It’d take some truly special catastrophe to get guys like Taylor, Nagy, Reich, Vrabel, or LaFleur fired at this point.

His odds don’t tell you it, but Pete Carroll is as safe as it gets, too. I doubt the Bucs part ways with Bruce Arians in his first go-around, either, while the Giants are so incredibly delusional that they seem tied at the hip to Pat Shurmur.

Feel free to sprinkle in some of the names from the last section if you don’t agree with me. I could easily be wrong about the way I’m feeling out some spots. But NFL teams usually don’t hand royalty pink slips, and some franchises have shown a history of loyalty at the head coach spot.

All that said, the NFL coaches that have the hottest seats right now appear to be the following.

Fangio is a sad tale waiting to happen. The guy is a brilliant defensive mind, and he waited 32 years for this opportunity. Denver wasn’t some Super Bowl threat, but laying an egg in week 1 against the Raiders looks bad.

Fangio could easily be a one-and-done. Maybe John Elway kicks him to the curb, or perhaps Denver makes sweeping changes throughout the front office. The odds don’t really suggest it, but I’m worried about Fangio already.

Guys that are admittedly on the hot seat that I am not particularly concerned about at the moment are Shanahan, Flores, Gase, Tomlin, Marrone, Patricia, and Rivera. That doesn’t mean these guys can’t be fired if things go south quickly, but there is solid rationale against it happening.

Marrone had the Jaguars in the AFC title game two years ago. He’s had to endure life with Blake Bortles and then saw Nick Foles get crushed into the ground. This guy may have earned approximately one million mulligans. He may not be deserving, of course.

Shanahan has never had a quarterback. Now he does with Jimmy Garoppolo healthy. It’s my personal belief that this is the first season upon which his front office will actually judge him. A 1-0 start can’t hurt his case.

Bovada Betting Odds

Gase just got hired, and the Jets should be 1-0 right now. Assuming they don’t just die a slow, horrible death and lose most of their games, I suspect he’d get at least the whole first year.

Rivera and Tomlin have Super Bowl appearances on their resume. Their teams are talented and typically very competitive. I don’t see in-season fires here, and that’s really what this bet is all about.

To be fair, Mike McCarthy was a shocking in-season canning last year. Hue Jackson didn’t last the whole year in Cleveland in 2018, either.

The point is you need to find a coach that has such a hot seat that his organization just throws their hands up in disgust and shows them the door.

Of the most viable bets, I think bettors should largely be looking at Dan Quinn, Jay Gruden, Matt Patricia, and Freddie Kitchens.

Which NFL Coach Will Get Fired First?

I think all of these coaches are in danger of being fired. It might feel like it’s a bit rash to let go of Kitchens, but when you look at the talent the Browns have acquired and the insane expectations in Cleveland now, a crater job is not going to look good for him.

To be frank, that hire was always weird. I know why the Browns did it. Kitchens helped Baker Mayfield and that Browns offense blow up in 2018, and they wanted to maintain continuity for their franchise passer.

But Kitchens isn’t really head coach material, or at least time should prove it.

That doesn’t mean he gets fired first, but he’s in the mix if the Browns don’t start racking up wins. The same can be said for Patricia. Detroit wasn’t very good last year, and now they’re 0-0-1 to start the season.

His specialty is defense, and the Lions allowed 27 points to a rookie quarterback. Unless Detroit makes serious strides, his head could be on the chopping block.

While I’d certainly consider throwing some cash at those coaches (they offer nice betting value), most of my focus is going to be on Quinn and Gruden. These are veteran coaches who have enjoyed some success (Quinn got the Falcons to a Super Bowl), but they’ve also put a lot of troubling gaffes on tape.

Quinn had the biggest. Yes, he got Atlanta to their second-ever Super Bowl, but he blew a 28-3 lead and cost the franchise its first-ever Lombardi Trophy. Atlanta stood behind him, yet he’s gone just 18-18 over the last two years.

Atlanta came out looking very sluggish in week 1. If they keep losing, the Falcons might turn to experienced coaching staff options like Dirk Koetter or Raheem Morris.

There’s also Gruden, who could be losing his locker room after publicly shaming Adrian Peterson. He also hasn’t been winning much, with erratic quarterback play allowing him to punch a ticket to the playoffs just once in five seasons.

Gruden offers a little more value, and he just hasn’t been very successful in DC. I don’t at all think it’s all been his fault, but you need results in the NFL. It will soon be time for a change, and the franchise may opt to give young offensive mind Kevin O’Connell or defensive coordinator Greg Manusky a crack at giving the team a spark.

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• Jay Gruden